Find the Probability of Success
for Any Online Home Based Business Opportunity
By Jack Price
There are about three big opportunities per lifetime.
Like baseball, if you miss all three, you are out. Do you remember the
last online homebased business opportunity you missed? Did you miss Microsoft?
Did you miss Yahoo? Did you miss Google?
Couda, shouda, wouda
Why did you miss out? Was it lack of knowledge?
Was it indecision? If it was lack of knowledge, you can forgive yourself.
You can not know what you do not know. There was nothing you could do about
it. If it was indecision, there was something you could have done.
Oportunity is the fruit of Convergence. Peter
Drucker defines opportunity this way:
"Opportunity in the market place is because of
a process of convergence of forces that were previously not together."
The idea of forces coming together, converging,
is stronger than the business itself. The essential forces Peter Drucker
did not individually identify as converging will be enumerated and discussed
in this article.
There are five essential forces that must be present
for any successful online homebased business opportunity. This article
will describe these five essential forces that must be in place for any
online homebased business opportunity to be successful.
These five essential forces apply to any online
homebased business opportunity. They are universal, abstract, and independent
of business type. They apply from academia to zymology.
A simple analytical method to evaluate these essential
elements and arrive at a numerical figure of merit will be presented. The
method is strong, impersonal, and reliable. You will arrive at a numerical
rating for the relative strength for the Probability of Success (S) for
any online homebased business opportunity you care to evaluate. Reducing
the evaluation to a number between zero and 100 gives you a powerful, impartial
method to evaluate or compare any online homebased business opportunity.
This will remove emotion from the decision process.
Convergence of these five essential ingredients
is absolutely essential for success. All five forces must be present simultaneously.
In other words, they must all converge at the same point in time for the
same business venture. They must all be in the right place at the right
time to create a successful online homebased business opportunity.
These forces are the essence of all businesses,
regardless of product. They are like the spokes in a wagon wheel. If one
spoke is missing, the wheel breaks down. Each factor dramatically affects
the success of any online homebased business opportunity.
Without the convergence of these five forces there
is no online homebased business opportunity. If there is no convergence,
there is nothing you can do to make the business a success. No amount of
hard work and no amount of money will yield success.
Opportunity presents itself only when all these
forces are in simultaneous alignment. One force is not considered more
important than the others. The order in which they are presented is no
indication of their relative values. They will be discussed in random order.
This method is not buried in concrete. Feel free
to make your own assessments of relative importance. When you finally establish
a value, stick with it. Be consistent so comparisons can be made between
one online homebased business opportunity and another. For example, if
you decide leadership has a maximum value of 2 or 5, stick with it on any
online homebased business opportunity you wish to evaluate.
It will be convenient if the sum of the maximum
values allowed always equals 100. In this case, Leadership has been arbitrarily
assigned a maximum value of 2. All you need to do is decide if the leadership
of your proposed online homebased business opportunity deserves a zero,
1, or 2.
1. Company (C ) (Maximum = 20)
Company Management (Maximum = 10)
Leadership (2)
Confidence or trust (2)
Experience (2)
Honesty (2)
Influence (2)
Company Financial Stability (Maximum = 10)
Assets (2)
Cash (2)
Credit Rating (2)
Visibility (2)
Technology (2)
Many start-up online homebased business opportunities
do not have the financial assets to sustain their own growth. A viable
online homebased business opportunity must have very deep pockets or be
owned by a company with very deep pockets, preferably a parent company
that has already gone through the growth cycle and has the funds to support
the new growth.
2. ProDucts (D) (Maximum = 20)
Leading Edge Product Technology (Maximum = 5)
R&D
Proprietary (No other place to get it)
Competitive
Product Quality (Maximum = 5)
Quality, like Reliability, must be built into
the design and process. It cannot be "tested" or "worked" into the products.
Product Fills a Recognizable Need (Maximum = 5)
There should be a clear need for your product
or service. If there is no need, there is no demand, and there is no opportunity.
There may be very little demand for 78 rpm vinyl records.
Consumable (Maximum = 5)
If the product is not consumable, there is no
additional market after the initial sales and there is no opportunity.
Trends (R) (Maximum = 20)
Demographic Trends (Maximum = 10)
As individuals, we can not create a demographic
trend.
We can only recognize it and take advantage of it. The "Baby Boomers" are
the largest market in history. Starting immediately after WWII, 76 million
babies were born during the period between1945 to 1964. When the first
of these babies were born, a powerful demand for baby products materialized.
Companies like Johnson & Johnson and Gerber's made huge profits. As
these babies started shaving, Gillette started making huge profits. As
they learned to drive, the Ford Mustang was in demand. As these babies
began to have babies, the Mini-Van became desirable. If your online homebased
business opportunity is positioned in front of the Baby Boomers, assign
Demographic Trends a maximum value.
Economic Trends (Maximum = 10)
Individuals do not create an economic trend.
Individuals have no control over economic trends; however certain businesses
are sensitive to economic trends. Real estate is sensitive to interest
rates. In times of economic downtrends a low number would be assigned.
Cosmetics, on the other hand, are virtually immune to economic downtrends
and would be assigned a high number. People will give up eating to look
good and feel good. If your online homebased business opportunity is immune
to economic trends assign a high number.
Timing (T) (Maximum = 20)
You have no doubt heard the expression that in
real estate the three most important factors are Location, Location, and
Location. In an online homebased business opportunity, the mantra is Timing,
Timing, and Timing.
If one force is more important than the others,
perhaps timing is the most important element of success. Timing, like trends,
is also beyond your control. Like trends, you can only recognize timing
and take advantage of it. There is nothing you can do to improve timing.
It is either there or it is not. If timing is present assign a high number
based upon the following criteria.
A. Formulation Phase: (Maximum = 20)
This is the phase where research and development
are just completed. Production and initial marketing efforts begin. This
region is characterized by slow, deliberate growth. As an agricultural
example, this is the time for planting. It is defined as the region of
the growth curve where income from sales is less than $50 million per year.
This is the time to get into any business. It
requires forethought and knowledge. It does not require speculation. It
requires due diligence on your part to study the online homebased business
opportunity and arrive at your estimate of the strength of the five essential
force ingredients of a successful online business venture. If you identify
that your online homebased business opportunity is in the formulation phase,
assign timing a value of 20.
B. Critical Mass Point
he critical mass point is defined as sales of
$50 million per year. This is the point which will determine " When". This
is the point when your labors will begin to yield fruit at such a great
rate you will be unable to contain them. From this point onward, the curve
rises ever so steeply. This is the time to act quickly and decisively.
If you are not on board at this time, your online homebased business opportunity
will quickly leave you behind. If you identify that your online homebased
business opportunity is at the critical point, assign timing a value of
20.
C. Momentum
Momentum is defined as sales greater than $50
million per year and increasing very rapidly. If you have exercised your
desire, ability, and motivation, you have already become a participant
before your online homebased business opportunity reaches momentum. You
have exercised your choice and are now in position to enjoy the fruits
of
your labor. There is nothing you can do to stop the momentum which is now
building beneath you. It is beyond your control. It is like a giant wave
that carries you to the pinnacle of success. There may be some who grab
onto an online homebased business opportunity as it speeds by them, but
the exponential growth eventually decays exponentially as the wave crest
rises higher and higher until the opportunity diminishes. For example,
you could buy Microsoft stock now, but the big opportunity is already over
and it will never come back again. If you find your online homebased business
opportunity is just starting into momentum, assign timing a value closer
to 20. If you find your online homebased business opportunity near the
top of the curve, near stabilization (defined below), assign timing a number
closer to one.
D. Stabilization
This is the area where the exponential growth
has died out. Momentum has dissipated. Sales are good, but sales are not
increasing exponentially. The business is mature, stable, and secure. The
curve is relatively flat, and growth has slowed to a value similar to the
development phase. The online homebased business opportunity has gone.
It is passed. It is over. There is no online homebased business opportunity.
If you find that your online homebased business opportunity is in stabilization,
assign timing a value near zero and start looking for another online homebased
business opportunity.
Compensation (K) (Maximum = 20)
Leverage (Maximum = 10)
If you trade time for money, you will never get
ahead by investing one increment of your time for one increment of income.
You will remain in the very treadmill you are trying to escape. You will
get by, but you will never get ahead. If you want to get ahead, you must
find a way to multiply your efforts. That is done by leveraging yourself.
J. Paul Getty stated this clearly when he said:
"I had rather have one percent of a hundred people's
efforts than 100% of my own efforts".
If you have no way to leverage yourself (e.g.
fixed salary) assign leverage a number near zero. If you can leverage yourself,
assign a number closer to 10.
Multiple ways to earn income (Maximum = 10)
Sales Profits (1)
When you can profit from your own sales efforts,
assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.
Override (1)
If you receive override compensation on the efforts
of others, assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.
Matching (5)
If you can receive matching compensation on the
efforts of others, assign a full value of 5.
Residual (2)
If you can build your equity to the point that
you have residual compensation from your previous efforts, assign a value
of 2.
Perpetuity (1)
If your equity is yours to sell or will to your
survivors, assign a value of 1, otherwise zero.
Define the Possibility for Success (P) as being
totally dependent upon the sum of the five prime forces required for a
successful business (above). Notice that it has nothing to do with you.
The only thing you will do is evaluate each ingredient and assign it a
strength value. This will depend upon the research you conduct to gain
information about the five essentials for the particular online homebased
business opportunity. Assign each one of the five ingredients a value from
zero to 20 according to the instructions presented above. (Naturally, 20
is the ideal, strongest value.) You have determined all the values for
C, D, R, T, and K. Repeating, you have evaluated each force ingredient
separately and arrived at your evaluation of its relative strength.
Add up all five of your separate evaluations.
P = C + D + R + T + K
For example, if all five ingredients are present
in your online homebased business opportunity and each is individually
evaluated as being 20, then:
P = 20 + 20 + 20 + 20 + 20
P = 100
Let us further define a Multiplier (M), as a figure
of merit derived from your desire, motivation, and ability to succeed.
Let M be limited to a number between zero and one with zero being the worst
case and one being the best case. Note that this multiplier is entirely
dependent upon you, not the online homebased business opportunity. Determine
this multiplier number by self-evaluating your desire, ability, and motivation.
Notice that the multiplier number does not depend on your time. Too many
people say "I don't have the time." That means you are "too busy chopping
wood to stop and sharpen the axe". Successful people do not have time---they
make time. Ideally, you want to rate yourself as a "1", not a zero. But
unto thine ownself be true.
Define Success (S) as:
S = M(P)
If you are a "one" and not a "zero", and all five
ingredients of your online homebased business opportunity are present at
their full value, there is no gamble since:
S = 1(100)
S = 100
Having completed your "due diligence", failure
is no longer an option or possibility. The probability for success is 100
percent. Your success is assured. It is no longer a question of "If". It
is simply a question of "When".
Get on board this online homebased business opportunity
fast
Use this procedure one each online homebased business
opportunity that you wish to evaluate and compare. |
